Report: in 2015, the global steel market trend forecast analysis
According to world steel dynamics prediction, world steel demand to rise 13.7% in 2010, up 5.8% on 2011, rose 4.6% in 2012. The next few years, the world appeared some new circumstances and new changes will affect the world iron and steel industry development and the downstream steel demand.
After the financial crisis, the world steel industry began a slow recovery. According to world steel dynamics (WSD) predicts that world steel demand to rise 13.7% in 2011, up 5.8% on 2012, rose 4.6% in 2013. The next few years, the world appeared some new circumstances and new changes will affect the world iron and steel industry development and the downstream steel demand; At the same time, the existing in the development of the world economy is an important uncertainty factors, the governments of loose monetary policy to stimulate economic growth influence will continue to occur.
From 2009 to 2013, the world steel industry development evaluation
2009 is in addition to China, other parts of the world to cut steel inventory year, roughly in the mid - 2009 has been completed, and, in 2009 China's apparent consumption has increased by more than 20% of the steel. In addition to other parts of the world outside of China, by the end of 2009, steel stocks have dropped to very low levels. 2009 apart from China, Russia, India and Brazil are low cost steel company has profit, many steel companies are unprofitable. 2009 world crude steel output fell by 7.3%, to 1.23 billion t.
In the next decade the global steel market trend analysis
Elsewhere in the world besides China's steel inventories in 2010 to increase, and demand for steel picks up. By May 2010 steel deliveries and prices have a bigger rebound, steel prices appear slow down ever since. In 2010 China's economy is still showing strong growth momentum, similarly, steel prices and rising demand, but into the second half of 2010, Chinese authorities continue to tightening policies in the real estate industry, China's domestic steel demand will enter the stationary phase. Other parts of the world besides China steel users, because of the economic outlook is optimistic, fund raising, steel inventories. 2010 world crude steel output is expected to grow 17.2%, reached a record level of 1.44 billion t.
2012 is in addition to China other parts of the world steel demand continues to grow year, reflecting the full synchronization of the world economy recovered. Instead, China's fixed asset investment decline, resulting in steel demand growth speed slow down. From other parts of the world, steel consumption intensive capital expenditures and construction department also began to rebound. World crude steel output in 2012 will grow by 5.4%, to 1.52 billion t.
Is expected in 2013 China's fixed asset investment growth continued to slow down, China's growth has been slowing. However, other developing economies will continue to maintain growth and sustained economic recovery in the developed countries since 2011. From the point of the whole world economy, will still maintain a certain growth rate. World crude steel output will grow by 4.7% in 2012, to 1.59 billion t.
Because of the reduced credit availability in 2009, falling confidence in the market and profit prospects, the investment and construction period longer construction departments and serious adverse effect on mechanical equipment manufacturing market. From the field of steel demand, senior durable consumer goods market of steel demand accounted for 20% of total demand, the demand of construction sector market accounted for 40%, mechanical equipment manufacturing steel demand accounted for 40% of the market. As a result, the market rebounded usually lag behind the economy picks up, so, in addition to China other parts of the world steel demand is strong will only appear after 2010.
According to the theory of purchasing power parity (PPP) calculations, half of the world gross domestic product (GDP) from developing countries, that is great steel demand outlook for development in the world. Fixed assets investment in developing countries (that is, the fixed asset investment accounted for the proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) is high, steel demand is too big. These developing countries national saving rate is high, and high rate of investment in fixed assets, compared with developed countries, the greater contribution to world GDP growth rate and thus contributed more to global steel demand growth