Since 2012, the steel price fluctuations can be roughly divided into three stages (Fig. 1), in 2012 January to May as the concussion uplink stage, is mainly driven by the rising prices of raw materials and downstream manufacturing seasonal recovery; in 2012 May - November by the European debt crisis continuous fermentation and China's economic slowdown the global economic boom, reduce, slowing demand, prices for the high prices to fall in 2012; since November, as the global economy a modest recovery, international steel prices have bottomed out, there is still the continuation of this trend. Overall, the international steel market price fluctuation range narrowed in 2012 than in previous years, with CRU global price index as an example, the fluctuation range of only 29.29, amplitude is 17%. And in 2011 the fluctuation range is 41.74 points, amplitude is 22%. Figure 1 the CRU index, the variety trend types and regions, plate or more than the long material, the North American market performance is relatively independent, the Asian market and European market more similar, but the European market volatility is relatively small (Fig. 2). Figure 2 CRU index, regional trend development trend in 2013 the global economy is expected to continue to moderate recovery in the future. In 2012 October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast 2013 global economic growth rate of 3.6%, higher than 3.3% in 2012. In 2012, November and December, the OECD (OECD) and the United Nations were also predicted in 2013 3.4% and 2.4% global economic growth (as shown in Table 2). Overall, in 2013, developed countries tight fiscal, wide currency, overall inflation pressure will be greater than the 2012 worldwide. The United States economy is expected to be a solid recovery, the debt crisis will tend to smooth, developing countries such as China and India economy will restore vitality, emerging markets than in 2012 rose a modest overall.

Table 2 the three institutions forecast for 2013 global economic growth

Global steel demand growth will further slow down. International iron and Steel Association (WSA) short-term demand for steel products in 2012 October forecast, in 2013 the global steel apparent consumption will grow by 3.2%, reaching 14.55 tons, in 2011 than the 6.2% growth rate dropped sharply (as shown in Table 3). Compared with 2012 April international iron and Steel Association, the short-term outlook, the new outlook of the association of the downward adjustment of 1.3 percentage points. Causes of global steel apparent consumption growth slowed in the European debt crisis and a slowdown in China and emerging economies, austerity policy. Table 3 the global steel apparent consumption of short-term outlook global overcapacity uplink space will control the steel prices. At present, the excess capacity has become one of the main risks facing the global steel industry, according to estimates, in 2012 the global crude steel production capacity of about 4 ~ 5 tons of excess, 2013 or will be more serious, uplink space which will limit the price of steel. The 2012 average global crude steel production capacity utilization rate of 78.8%, lower than the 80.7% in 2011. The excess production capacity in China is no longer news, in fact, other regional overcapacity problem is serious. According to the European Commission, the European steel industry overcapacity in about 20%-25%, therefore, the Commission is considering cuts in excess capacity plan, aims to promote innovation, development and increase employment rate. India iron and steel industry is developing rapidly, in 2012, India's crude steel output growth rate than all the major steel producing countries, including China, at present, as the world's fourth largest steel producer, is expected to 2015 will be promoted to the world's second largest steel producer. At present India's excess capacity of about 25%, to 2016-2017 years, excess capacity is expected to reach 30%. In 2013 the global steel market moderate slightly upward of the possibility of a larger. Overall, the current global economy there is still some uncertainty, Greece, Spain is in deep debt crisis in a certain extent drag on the recovery of the European economy, the problem of excess production capacity is currently no effective solution, however, from the current situation, outside Europe market has emerged in the signal is relatively optimistic about the near-term results, the United States automobile manufacturers also improved; in addition, a preliminary agreement the United States of America is the "fiscal cliff" reach for the stability of the market also played a positive effect. China's purchasing managers index (PMI) has 4 months in a row and the line above, indicates that manufacturing was expanding, the economic rebound trend is confirmed, the steel industry is expected to gradually out of crisis into the abyss, but subject to economic is not the world's major economies have improved greatly, expects steel demand growth will be very limited, 2013 the global steel prices in 2012 compared with moderate slightly upstream of the possibility of a larger